Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz reached on infield single to shortstop, Altuve scored, Tucker to second, Bregman to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Dubón singled to right, Tucker scored, Singleton to second.3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Mountcastle homered to left center (391 feet), McKenna scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Altuve homered to center (413 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Rutschman singled to center, McCann scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3McCann singled to center, Urías scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Diaz homered to right center (394 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Rutschman homered to left center (412 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- HOU +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +31 Elo | BAL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–24 | Road vs home | 35–235th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.