Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña singled to center, McCormick scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 8Bregman singled to center, Maldonado scored and Altuve scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Altuve singled to right, Dubón scored and Peña scored, Maldonado to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Hays homered to right center (399 feet), Mountcastle scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Altuve singled to left, J. Abreu scored, Dubón to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Tucker homered to right center (427 feet), Altuve scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Fair odds
- BAL -118
- HOU +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +49 Elo | BAL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3034–24 | Road vs home | 35–225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.