Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Andrew VelazquezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Velazquez homered to left center (367 feet).3–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 8Bregman singled to right, Meyers scored and Altuve scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 8Altuve singled to left, Peña scored, Meyers to second.2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Meyers singled to left, McCormick scored, Peña to second.2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to left, Ohtani scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Diaz singled to right, Alvarez scored and Bregman scored, Tucker to third.1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Tucker singled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second, Bregman to third.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Grichuk singled to right, Renfroe scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Tucker homered to right (393 feet), Bregman scored and Alvarez scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Alvarez singled to center, Altuve scored, Bregman to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Fair odds
- HOU -122
- LAA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +12 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +59 Elo | HOU 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 32–2511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 3–8 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.