Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike MoustakasBatting1-3
- Griffin CanningPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras doubled to left, Martinez scored.0–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–12
- 7García homered to center (419 feet), Lowe scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 7Semien homered to left (372 feet), Grossman scored and Martinez scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Garver doubled to left, Seager scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Duran scored on Canning wild pitch, Semien to second on wild pitch by Canning, Taveras to third on wild pitch by Canning.0–5
- 3Duran scored on Canning wild pitch, Semien to second on wild pitch by Canning, Taveras to third on wild pitch by Canning.0–5
- 3Semien walked, Garver scored, Taveras to second, Duran to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 40–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Martinez hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Semien singled to center, Grossman scored on error and Martinez scored on fielding error by center fielder Moniak.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Fair odds
- TEX -127
- LAA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.0 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +12 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +88 Elo | TEX 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 40–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 4–3 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.