Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4
- Jose UrquidyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Singleton scored, Dubón to second on Soriano wild pitch.2–1
- 6Singleton scored on Soriano wild pitch, Dubón to second on wild pitch by Soriano.2–1
- 6Ohtani homered to center (448 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Moniak doubled to right, Escobar scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -122
- LAA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +52 Elo | HOU 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 33–259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 3–9 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.