Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Randal GrichukBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grichuk homered to center (401 feet), Cron scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 8Seager singled to center, Duran scored and Heim scored, Semien to third.1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Seager homered to right (392 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Rengifo singled to center, Escobar scored, Wallach to second.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Jankowski hit sacrifice fly to center, Martinez scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Seager homered to left center (383 feet), Semien scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Semien tripled to right, Jankowski scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Fair odds
- TEX -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.0 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | LAA: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +93 Elo | TEX 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 41–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 4–4 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.