Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canha singled to left, Wiemer scored, Adames to second.6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 7Santana doubled to left, Contreras scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Monasterio singled to left, Canha scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Adames homered to right center (399 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Taveras grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Jankowski scored, Duran out at second.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Adames singled to left, Santana scored, Frelick to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Santana homered to right center (392 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- MIL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +62 Elo | TEX 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 42–223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.