Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien grounded out to third, Jankowski scored.9–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–7
- 9Jankowski doubled to left, Duran scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–6
- 9Duran doubled to right, Grossman scored.9–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 9Martinez grounded out to second, Garver scored, Grossman to third.9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 8Canha grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Yelich scored, Santana out at second, Contreras to third.9–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 8Contreras singled to center, Taylor scored and Turang scored, Yelich to second.8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Santana homered to right (378 feet), Yelich scored and Contreras scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 6García singled to left, Seager scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- MIL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +3 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +53 Elo | TEX 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 42–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.