Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Anderson singled to center, Taylor scored and Turang scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Turang singled to left, Canha scored, Taylor to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Taylor singled to right, Santana scored, Canha to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Canha singled to right, Contreras scored on error, Canha safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Wallner, Santana safe at third on error.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Farmer singled to left, Luplow scored, Correa to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Vázquez homered to left center (385 feet), Farmer scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Adames homered to left center (397 feet), Contreras scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -113
- MIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–34 | Road vs home | 33–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.