Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to right, Cooper scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 6Bogaerts homered to center (427 feet), Machado scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Soto singled to right, Kim scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -108
- MIA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +22 Elo | SD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 32–3321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–3 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.