Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts singled to center, Hernández scored and Barnes scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Barnes reached on bunt single to first, Outman scored, Barnes to second, Hernández to second, Hernández safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Bell.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–0
- 4De La Cruz doubled to left, Burger scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −9 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Caleb Ferguson: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +60 Elo | LAD 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 41–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.