Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching3.1 IP, 10 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Outman homered to left center (378 feet).11–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 211–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 5Wendle tripled to center, Sánchez scored.11–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 210–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 110–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 4Muncy homered to right (408 feet).10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to right (360 feet), Soler scored and Arraez scored.10–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 3Stallings homered to center (415 feet), Sánchez scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Burger homered to center (426 feet), Bell scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Soler homered to left center (441 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Betts homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Fair odds
- LAD -127
- MIA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +81 Elo | LAD 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 21st of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 41–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.