Houston Astros at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tucker homered to right center (422 feet).6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6McCormick homered to right center (388 feet).5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Wendle scored on throwing error by pitcher Javier, Bell safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Dubón, Bell safe at second on error.4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Dubón scored on error, Tucker safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Chisholm Jr., Tucker safe at third on error.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Bregman grounded out to third, Meyers scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Sánchez singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, Sánchez to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Diaz homered to left center (409 feet), Alvarez scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Soler homered to right center (376 feet), Wendle scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2De La Cruz singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–26 | Road vs home | 37–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.