Houston Astros at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell homered to right (389 feet).1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 8Arraez homered to right (367 feet).1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Soler homered to left (387 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Altuve doubled to left, Peña scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Berti scored on passed ball.0–2
- 3Berti scored.0–2
- 3Berti doubled to center, Fortes scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Fair odds
- MIA -103
- HOU +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–25 | Road vs home | 36–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.