Houston Astros at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tucker singled to left, Altuve scored and Bregman scored.12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–5
- 7Bregman doubled to right, Peña scored and Maldonado scored, Altuve to third.10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 7Altuve walked, Singleton scored, Maldonado to second, Peña to third.8–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 48–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 7Dubón hit sacrifice fly to right, McCormick scored, Peña to second, Singleton to third.7–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 5De La Cruz doubled to center, Burger scored.6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 4Berti grounded into fielder's choice to second, Burger scored on error and Sánchez scored on throwing error by shortstop Peña, Fortes out at second.6–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 3Peña singled to right, Alvarez scored, Singleton to second, McCormick to third.6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 1Burger doubled to left, Arraez scored and Bell scored.5–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Dubón doubled to left, Singleton scored, Dubón out stretching at third.5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1McCormick homered to center (435 feet), Alvarez scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 46%
- Fair odds
- MIA -102
- HOU +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +30 Elo | HOU 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3036–26 | Road vs home | 37–266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.