Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Betts homered to left center (419 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Betts homered to left (402 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Hernández singled to right, Rosario scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bell homered to center (431 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -127
- MIA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +79 Elo | LAD 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 42–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.