Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to right (368 feet).6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Pham homered to left (376 feet), Marte scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Carpenter singled to right, Campusano scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Walker grounded out to second, Pham scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 1Machado homered to left (374 feet).2–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Kim homered to left center (378 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Thomas singled to right, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Carroll scored, Walker to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +3 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +33 Elo | SD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 31–3020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–6 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.