San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bogaerts singled to center, Soto scored.10–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 9Soto singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 9Tatis Jr. doubled to left, Kim scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Pham homered to left center (392 feet), C. Kelly scored and Marte scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Marte homered to center (420 feet).7–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 37–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Kim singled to left, Grisham scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Cronenworth homered to right (377 feet), Machado scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 3Machado singled to right, Soto scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Fair odds
- ARI -107
- SD +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −18 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +31 Elo | SD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 28–3022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 4–2 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.