San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-4
- Yu DarvishPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moore singled to center, Marlowe scored, Rojas to second.1–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 8Marlowe singled to center, France scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8France doubled to center, Hernández scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Raleigh homered to right (450 feet), Rodríguez scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Crawford hit sacrifice fly to right, Marlowe scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Soto grounded out to pitcher, Kim scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −6 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +33 Elo | SEA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 32–2613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.