San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-4
- Nick MartinezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting3-4
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 6Moore tripled to center, Murphy scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Raleigh walked, Moore scored, Rodríguez to second, Crawford to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball 40–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- SD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +9 | SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 31–2613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.