Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. stole home.2–5
- 7Tatis Jr. stole home.2–5
- 7Grisham homered to left center (388 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Mountcastle homered to left center (408 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Cronenworth singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Bogaerts singled to center, Kim scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Tatis Jr. singled to left, Grisham scored, Kim to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Santander hit sacrifice fly to right, Rutschman scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Fair odds
- BAL -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL 0 Elo | BAL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–23 | Road vs home | 29–2920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.