Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson singled to center, Frazier scored, Rutschman to second.3–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 9Hays homered to left center (384 feet).2–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 6Mullins singled to center, O'Hearn scored.1–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 5Gamel hit a ground rule double, Cooper scored and Sánchez scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 5Cooper doubled to center, Bogaerts scored, Sánchez to third.0–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 2Machado doubled to left, Soto scored and Tatis Jr. scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Sánchez homered to right center (380 feet), Machado scored, Bogaerts scored and Cronenworth scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Cronenworth walked, Kim scored, Bogaerts to second, Machado to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 40–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Fair odds
- BAL -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | BAL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +8 Elo | SD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 1st of 3038–22 | Road vs home | 28–2921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.