Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4
- George KirbyPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Mountcastle singled to center, Mullins scored.1–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +11 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–22 | Road vs home | 34–2610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.