Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.1 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Westburg singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Westburg to second, Mountcastle to third.2–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Rodríguez doubled to left, Rojas scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 5France homered to left (402 feet).1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 4Rodríguez homered to right (354 feet), Marlowe scored and Rojas scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Rojas singled to right, Canzone scored, Marlowe to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, France scored, Canzone to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Santander homered to center (414 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Raleigh homered to right (403 feet), Suárez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -105
- BAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +16 Elo | SEA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–21 | Road vs home | 33–2611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.