Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Garrett CooperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cooper homered to center (439 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Henderson doubled to left, Hicks scored, Rutschman scored and Westburg scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2O'Hearn homered to right (343 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Fair odds
- BAL -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −7 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +1 Elo | BAL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3037–22 | Road vs home | 28–2820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.