Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Mullins homered to right (364 feet), Henderson scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Canzone homered to right (402 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Mateo scored, McCann third.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Hays singled to left, Mountcastle scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Rodríguez doubled to left, Rojas scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Suárez singled to center, Rojas scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Henderson hit sacrifice fly to left, McCann scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Fair odds
- SEA -103
- BAL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −10 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +12 Elo | BAL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3036–22 | Road vs home | 34–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.