San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-4
- Pedro AvilaPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Walker homered to right (386 feet), Pham scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pham doubled to right, Carroll scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- SD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −4 | SD: Rich Hill: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +6 Elo | ARI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 28–3122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 5–2 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.