San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored, Moreno to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (383 feet), Peterson scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Cronenworth doubled to left, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Perdomo homered to right (374 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–1
- 1Marte reached on infield single to first, Carroll scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Cronenworth singled to center, Machado scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Machado doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tatis Jr. singled to center, Kim scored, Tatis Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -111
- SD +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +4 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 29–3121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 5–3 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.