Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trejo singled to left, Rodgers scored, Trejo to second, Jones thrown out at third.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Jones singled to center, McMahon scored, Rodgers to second.4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Rodgers singled to center, Blackmon scored and Tovar scored, McMahon to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Tovar homered to left center (426 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Walker homered to right (382 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Montero homered to center (433 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Moreno doubled to center, Thomas scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Walker doubled to right, Carroll scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Fair odds
- ARI -105
- COL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.5 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −18 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +61 Elo | ARI 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 25–3024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 6–1 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.