Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-3
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to center (419 feet), Kim scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 8Kim singled to center, Azocar scored and Gamel scored.0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −14 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +20 Elo | SD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 30–3020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–5 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.