Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Grisham singled to right, Cronenworth scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Moreno homered to right (329 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pham homered to center (430 feet), Carroll scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Fair odds
- SD -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Rich Hill: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +25 Elo | SD 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 30–2920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 4–5 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.