Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce JarvisPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peterson singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Peterson to second.8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Pham scored.7–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 36–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Pham doubled to left, Marte scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 9Marte singled to right, Thomas scored and Perdomo scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Doyle homered to left center (411 feet), Montero scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Toglia doubled to left, Jones scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Perdomo scored on pickoff error by catcher Díaz, Marte thrown out at home.3–2
- 7Perdomo scored on pickoff error by catcher Díaz, Marte thrown out at home.3–2
- 6McMahon grounded out to shortstop, Blackmon scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Blackmon grounded out to first, Toglia scored, Montero to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Walker homered to right center (431 feet), Pham scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Fair odds
- COL -101
- ARI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.4 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +20 | ARI: Joe Mantiply (no track record yet) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +2 Elo | COL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 26–3024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 6–2 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.