Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pham hit sacrifice fly to left, Thomas scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 8Walker homered to center (425 feet), Pham scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 6Jones homered to right center (406 feet), Rodgers scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Rodgers doubled to left, Tovar scored and Doyle scored.6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Ahmed tripled to right, Walker scored, Carroll scored and Kennedy scored, Ahmed out stretching at home.6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Kennedy walked, Pham scored, Carroll to second, Walker to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 43–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Rodgers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Profar scored, McMahon out at second.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5McMahon singled to right, Tovar scored, Profar to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1McMahon homered to right center (416 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Walker homered to left center (428 feet), Lewis scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -101
- COL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.5 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 26–3124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 7–2 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.