Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Bryce JarvisPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moreno homered to left (384 feet), Pham scored, Walker scored and Thomas scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Carroll reached on infield single to second, Thomas scored, Perdomo to second, Moreno to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Bogaerts homered to left (409 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Walker singled to right, Carroll scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Moreno grounded out to shortstop, Walker scored and Thomas scored on throwing error by first baseman Cronenworth.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | ARI: Scott McGough (no track record yet) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +37 Elo | SD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 31–3120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 6–6 SD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.