San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sánchez homered to left (430 feet), Azocar scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7Tellez singled to right, Adames scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Adames singled to right, Santana scored on throwing error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Adames to second.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Machado homered to center (404 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Tellez homered to center (406 feet), Contreras scored and Adames scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Adames singled to center, Taylor scored, Contreras to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Contreras singled to right, Turang scored, Taylor to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -120
- SD +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +4 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +34 Elo | MIL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 35–279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.