San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Garrett CooperBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cooper singled to left, Soto scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second.4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Goldschmidt homered to left center (401 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Cooper singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second.2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Carpenter singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts thrown out at third.1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 42%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- SD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.0 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −27 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +55 Elo | SD 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–37 | Road vs home | 27–3627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.