San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras doubled to center, Monasterio scored.6–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–10
- 7Tatis Jr. walked, Batten scored on Uribe wild pitch, Kim to third on wild pitch by Uribe.6–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 46–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–9
- 7Grisham scored on Uribe wild pitch, Kim to second on wild pitch by Uribe, Batten to third on wild pitch by Uribe.6–9
- 7Grisham scored on Uribe wild pitch, Kim to second on wild pitch by Uribe, Batten to third on wild pitch by Uribe.6–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 6Canha singled to left, Frelick scored and Santana scored, Adames to third.4–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 6Frelick doubled to left, Wiemer scored and Yelich scored, Santana to third.4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Santana walked, Monasterio scored, Yelich to second, Wiemer to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 44–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Tellez doubled to right, Canha scored and Turang scored, Monasterio to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Frelick walked, Yelich scored, Santana to second, Contreras to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 44–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Batten homered to left center (376 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −3 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–36 | Road vs home | 37–278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–5 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.