San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Edman singled to left, Winn scored, Goldschmidt to second.5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Contreras homered to center (427 feet), Goldschmidt scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Kim hit sacrifice fly to left, Batten scored, Azocar to second.5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Contreras homered to left center (394 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Campusano homered to left (383 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Contreras scored, Burleson to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Azocar singled to right, Campusano scored and Batten scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Gorman singled to right, Winn scored, Goldschmidt to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Kim scored, Soto to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +12 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +6 Elo | SD 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–37 | Road vs home | 27–3727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.