Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Steer doubled to center, Senzel scored.1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 8Estrada doubled to left, Slater scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Bailey homered to center (401 feet), Haniger scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Slater scored on Williamson wild pitch.0–3
- 3Slater scored on Williamson wild pitch.0–3
- 2Matos doubled to right, Davis scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Bailey scored on a disengagement violation, Davis to second on a disengagement violation.0–1
- 2Bailey scored on a disengagement violation, Davis to second on a disengagement violation.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Fair odds
- SF -112
- CIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +28 Elo | SF 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 8th of 3037–31 | Road vs home | 37–3011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.