Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas singled to center, Pham scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Longoria hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored, Marte to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (415 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Marte singled to left, Steer scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Friedl hit sacrifice fly to center, Benson scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Marte doubled to right, Carroll scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +9 Elo | ARI 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3037–29 | Road vs home | 34–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 4–2 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.