Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Steer singled to right, McLain scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Drury grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rengifo scored, Schanuel out at second.8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 7Steer singled to left, De La Cruz scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 7De La Cruz tripled to right, Benson scored, Friedl scored and McLain scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5De La Cruz homered to center (408 feet), Maile scored and McLain scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Votto grounded out to third, McLain scored, Steer to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Rengifo doubled to left, Velazquez scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (442 feet), Rengifo scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -107
- CIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.1 – 5.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +15 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +5 Elo | LAA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–27 | Road vs home | 32–3119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.