Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bethancourt hit sacrifice fly to left, Basabe scored.18–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play18–4
- 8Drury homered to center (401 feet), Schanuel scored and Ohtani scored.17–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play17–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 117–1
- 8H. Ramírez singled to center, Bethancourt scored and J. Lowe scored, Aranda to second.17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play17–1
- 7Arozarena homered to center (427 feet), Díaz scored.15–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 115–1
- 6Siri homered to left (410 feet), Basabe scored.13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–1
- 6Paredes homered to left center (397 feet), Arozarena scored and H. Ramírez scored.11–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 6H. Ramírez doubled to center, Bethancourt scored and Díaz scored, Arozarena to third.8–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Renfroe homered to left (392 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Basabe doubled to right, Mead scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Mead doubled to left, H. Ramírez scored and Paredes scored, Mead to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.0 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–29 | Road vs home | 32–2918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.