Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Aranda homered to right (430 feet).6–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 5Drury homered to right center (395 feet).5–7
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 35–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 4Pinto homered to center (420 feet), Basabe scored.5–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 4J. Lowe homered to right center (388 feet).3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 3Grichuk doubled to center, Thaiss scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 3Moustakas scored, Thaiss to second on passed ball by Pinto.2–5
- 3Moustakas scored, Thaiss to second on passed ball by Pinto.2–5
- 3Thaiss singled to center, Drury scored, Moustakas to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Schanuel scored, Moustakas to second on passed ball by Pinto, Drury to third on passed ball by Pinto.2–4
- 3Schanuel scored, Moustakas to second on passed ball by Pinto, Drury to third on passed ball by Pinto.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to right, Thaiss scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +18 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3034–28 | Road vs home | 31–2919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.