Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Erasmo RamirezPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Pinto singled to right, Raley scored, J. Lowe to second.9–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 10J. Lowe singled to center, Paredes scored, Raley to third.8–6
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–6
- 10Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball 38–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 10Raley singled to right, Siri scored, Paredes to third.7–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 7Drury doubled to center, Schanuel scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 7H. Ramírez singled to center, Díaz scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 5H. Ramírez doubled to left, Arozarena scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pinto singled to right, J. Lowe scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- LAA +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −3 | TB: Erasmo Ramirez: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +16 Elo | TB 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3033–28 | Road vs home | 31–2816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.