Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting1-4
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brett KennedyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (411 feet).0–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -105
- TOR +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Brett Kennedy: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +9 Elo | TOR 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–28 | Road vs home | 30–3222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.