Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Reds- Kevin NewmanBatting1-3
- Graham AshcraftPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kwan singled to right, Straw scored on error, Kwan safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Hopkins.3–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Calhoun singled to left, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +22 Elo | CIN 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 29–3122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.