Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Votto singled to left, Friedl scored, Steer to second, Steer safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Benson grounded out to first, Votto scored on error by catcher Bo Naylor, Fairchild to second, Encarnacion-Strand to third.2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5Arias homered to center (429 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4McLain homered to left (377 feet), Friedl scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Fairchild homered to left center (427 feet), Encarnacion-Strand scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Ramírez singled to left, Straw scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1McLain doubled to left, Friedl scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Fair odds
- CIN -118
- CLE +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +15 | CLE: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 1.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +62 Elo | CIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 29–3222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.