Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Steer doubled to left, De La Cruz scored, Steer to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Benson scored on error and Friedl scored on error, De La Cruz safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Schanuel.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left center (392 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Moustakas homered to right center (387 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Drury homered to right center (400 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1McLain homered to center (413 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Fair odds
- LAA -106
- CIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +8 Elo | CIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–27 | Road vs home | 32–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.