Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Schneider homered to left center (387 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4De La Cruz tripled to right, De La Cruz scored on throwing error by right fielder Biggio and McLain scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Friedl homered to right center (382 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Bichette singled to center, Varsho scored, Merrifield to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Merrifield singled to right, Espinal scored, Varsho to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Varsho singled to center, Biggio scored, Espinal to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Fair odds
- CIN -105
- TOR +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −13 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3035–29 | Road vs home | 31–3221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.