Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jansen singled to left, Varsho scored.10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 7Stephenson homered to left center (411 feet).9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 4Springer homered to left (368 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.9–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 4Belt homered to left (368 feet).7–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 4Bichette homered to right (350 feet).6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 2Marte flied out to left, Steer scored on throwing error by third baseman Chapman and Encarnacion-Strand scored on error.5–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Belt homered to right (344 feet), Merrifield scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Kiermaier homered to right (354 feet), Jansen scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Belt grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bichette scored on fielding error by second baseman McLain.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +13 | TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +24 Elo | CIN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3036–29 | Road vs home | 31–3322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.